In recent years, nuts have become a crucial export commodity. Each year, we look at an overview of the market and what we predict for the coming year.
- Initial crop size estimate in April 2019 was 2.5 billion pounds, slightly larger than last year’s estimate.
- Final crop size estimate in August 2019 was 2.2 billion pounds.
- China shipments are down 25% from previous year.
- Tariff on almonds is 65%.
- Ingredient usage for almond milk and almond butter continue to push domestic consumption.
Prediction: Steady for now. Chinese New Year will have an impact.
- Crop size 2018-2019 is 850 million pounds.
- Estimate for 2019 -2020 crop is 810 million pounds.
- Good quality halves will increase in cost until new crop.
- Poor quality pecan pieces are flooding the market with cheap prices.
- Mexico is now the largest grower of pecans.
- Tariff on US pecans to China is 47%.
- Tariff on Mexican pecans to China is 7%.
- Chinese imports from Mexico are up 3,000%!
- Shipments of US pecans to China dropped to 13 million pounds.
Prediction: Firm until new crop. Probable decrease in 2020 due to tariffs.
- 2018-2019 crop was 994 million pounds.
- 2019-2020 crop estimate is 800 million pounds.
- High prices continue to persist despite a large crop.
- Iran’s short pistachio crop benefited US growers.
- Tariff on pistachios is 60%.
- Imports to China are up 25%.
Prediction: Decrease after 4th quarter. Iran will produce a decent crop in 2019-2020 and worldwide supply will be over a billion pounds.
- 2018-2019 crop was 673,000 tons. Original estimate was 691,000 tons.
- 2019-2020 estimate was 690,000 tons. Final estimate is 631,000 tons.
- Shortfall in estimate has firmed up the market on current crop.
- Tariffs to China are 47%.
- Imports to China are down 48%.
- China grows their own walnuts and have a big crop.
Prediction: Chinese New Year will determine if price will go up or down.