2019 Commodities

October 9, 2019

In recent years, nuts have become a crucial export commodity. Each year, we look at an overview of the market and what we predict for the coming year.

ALMONDS

  • Initial crop size estimate in April 2019 was 2.5 billion pounds, slightly larger than last year’s estimate.
  • Final crop size estimate in August 2019 was 2.2 billion pounds.
  • China shipments are down 25% from previous year.
  • Tariff on almonds is 65%.
  • Ingredient usage for almond milk and almond butter continue to push domestic consumption.

Prediction: Steady for now. Chinese New Year will have an impact.

 

PECANS

  • Crop size 2018-2019 is 850 million pounds.
  • Estimate for 2019 -2020 crop is 810 million pounds.
  • Good quality halves will increase in cost until new crop.
  • Poor quality pecan pieces are flooding the market with cheap prices.
  • Mexico is now the largest grower of pecans.
  • Tariff on US pecans to China is 47%.
  • Tariff on Mexican pecans to China is 7%.
  • Chinese imports from Mexico are up 3,000%!
  • Shipments of US pecans to China dropped to 13 million pounds.

Prediction: Firm until new crop. Probable decrease in 2020 due to tariffs.

 

PISTACHIOS

  • 2018-2019 crop was 994 million pounds.
  • 2019-2020 crop estimate is 800 million pounds.
  • High prices continue to persist despite a large crop.
  • Iran’s short pistachio crop benefited US growers.
  • Tariff on pistachios is 60%.
  • Imports to China are up 25%.

Prediction: Decrease after 4th quarter. Iran will produce a decent crop in 2019-2020 and worldwide supply will be over a billion pounds.

 

WALNUTS

  • 2018-2019 crop was 673,000 tons. Original estimate was 691,000 tons.
  • 2019-2020 estimate was 690,000 tons. Final estimate is 631,000 tons.
  • Shortfall in estimate has firmed up the market on current crop.
  • Tariffs to China are 47%.
  • Imports to China are down 48%.
  • China grows their own walnuts and have a big crop.

Prediction: Chinese New Year will determine if price will go up or down.

Tags: commodities, nut commodity

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